A comparison of SARIMA and LSTM in forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Jambi, Indonesia

Khaira, Ulfa and Utomo, Pradita Eko Prasetyo and Aryani, Reni and Weni, Indra (2020) A comparison of SARIMA and LSTM in forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Jambi, Indonesia. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1566 (1). pp. 1-7. ISSN 1757-899X

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Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is one of the common and fatal diseases in Indonesia. Jambi city is one of the dengue-endemic areas in Jambi province. To reduce the incidence rate of dengue, an early warning based on forecasting is necessary. Time-series forecasting of DHF can provide useful information to support and help public health officers for planning on DHF prevention. This paper compares two methods for Time-series forecasting of DHF incidence, namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The forecasting performance is assessed using the monthly number of DHF incidence data from January 2012 to April 2019 were acquired from the district health offices. To show the effectiveness of the model, the performances are evaluated based on two metrics: mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). In the first

Type:	Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software
Divisions:	Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi > Sistem Informasi
Depositing User:	Khaira
Date Deposited:	19 Mar 2021 04:51
Last Modified:	19 Mar 2021 04:51
URI:	https://repository.unja.ac.id/id/eprint/16867

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