Fahlevi, Reza (2024) FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI TUKAR PETANI SUBSEKTOR HORTIKULTURA DAN PERAMALAN NILAI TUKAR PETANI SUBSEKTOR HORTIKULTURA DI PROVINSI JAMBI DENGAN METODE ARIMA BOX-JENKINS. S1 thesis, Universitas Jambi.
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Abstract
Pelaksanaan pembangunan pertanian bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat khususnya kesejahteraan petani. Namun berdasarkan kendala yang terjadi, dirasa belum cukup untuk dapat meningkatkan pendapatan, kesejahteraan petani, dan mengatasi kemiskinan di pedesaan. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu menganalisis faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar petani subsektor hortikultura, dan melakukan peramalan nilai tukar petani subesektor hortikultura di Provinsi Jambi. Jenis data penelitian ini adalah data sekunder. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode analisis deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menggunakan data runtun waktu mulai dari Januari 2016 hingga Desember 2022 serta menggunakan Provinsi Jambi sebagai objek penelitian. Sumber data dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik. Alat analisis yang digunakan ialah regresi liner berganda dan ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel ihk, harga komoditas Jeruk dan Bawang Putih berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan serta variabel harga komoditas Cabai Rawit, Bawang Merah dan Alpukat berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Sementara itu, hasil identifikasi model arima, diketahui bahwa model ARIMA (1,1,1) merupakan model terbaik yang digunakan sebagai alat peramalan nilai tukar petani subsektor hortikultura di Provinsi Jambi. Berdasarkan hasil ramalan, nilai tukar petani subsektor hortikultura di Provinsi Jambi pada 15 periode berikutnya cenderung menurun. Kata Kunci : Kesejahteraan Petani, Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Hortikultura, Regresi Linier Berganda, ARIMA Box-Jenkins. ABSTRACT The implementation of agricultural development actually aims to improve community welfare, especially the welfare of farmers. However, based on the obstacles that occur, it is felt that it is not enough to increase income, farmers' welfare, and overcome poverty in rural areas. The aim of this research is to analyze the factors that influence the exchange rate of farmers in the horticulture subsector, and forecast the exchange rate of farmers in the horticulture subsector in Jambi Province. The type of data for this research is secondary data. The research method used is a quantitative descriptive analysis method using time series data from January 2016 to December 2022 and using Jambi Province as the research object. The data source in this research was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. The analysis tools used are multiple liner regression and ARIMA Box-Jenkins. The research results show the variable wages for agricultural workers had a negative and insignificant effect, the IHK variable, the commodity prices of oranges and garlic had a negative and significant effect and the commodity price variables of cayenne pepper, shallots and avocados had a positive and significant effect. Meanwhile, from the results of identifying the Arima model, it is known that the ARIMA model (1,1,1) is the best model used as a tool for forecasting exchange rates for farmers in the horticulture subsector in Jambi province. Based from forecasting result, exchange rates for farmers in the horticulture subsector in Jambi province in next 15 period is tends to decrease. Keyword : Farmer Welfare, Subsector Farmer Exchange Rate Horticulture, Multiple Linear Regression, ARIMA Box-Jenkins Forecasting.
| Type: | Thesis (S1) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ejahteraan Petani, Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Hortikultura, Regresi Linier Berganda, ARIMA Box-Jenkins. |
| Subjects: | L Education > L Education (General) |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Ekonomi Pembangunan |
| Depositing User: | Fahlevi |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Jan 2024 04:45 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Jan 2024 04:45 |
| URI: | https://repository.unja.ac.id/id/eprint/60439 |
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