ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME EKSPOR BIJI KAKAO INDONESIA KE MALAYSIA

Mukaromah, Dewi Fadhilatul (2025) ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME EKSPOR BIJI KAKAO INDONESIA KE MALAYSIA. S1 thesis, Universitas Jambi.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara penghasil biji kakao di dunia. Walaupun masih mengalami fluktuasi, Malaysia menjadi salah satu negara tujuan utama ekspor biji kakao Indonesia.Tujuan penelitian ini (1) Menganalisis trend perkembangan dari volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia serta faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya tahun 1989 – 2023, serta (2) Menganalisis faktor-faktor yang signifikan mempengaruhi volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia tahun 1989 – 2023 dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari Bank Dunia, Bank Indonesia, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations Commodity Trade (UN Comtrade). Datanya dianalisis menggunakan deskriptif dan uji statistik Error Correction Model (ECM), dengan volume ekspor biji kakao indonesia ke malaysia sebagai variabel terikat dan produksi biji kakao, harga riil biji kakao internasional, nilai tukar riil rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika, dan kebijakan Bea keluar 2010 sebagai variabel bebas. Perkembangan volume ekspor biji kakao indonesia serta faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya berfluktuatif cenderung meningkat. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek produksi biji kakao Indonesia berpengaruh positif terhadap volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia. Sedangkan kebijakan Bea keluar 2010 dalam jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif terhadap volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia. Namun, harga riil biji kakao internasional dan nilai tukar riil rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika tidak berpengaruh terhadap volume ekspor biji kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia. Kata kunci: Ekspor, Biji Kakao, Indonesia, Malaysia, Error Correction Model. ABSTRACT Indonesia is one of the world's cocoa bean producing countries. Although it still experiences fluctuations, Malaysia has become one of the main destination countries for Indonesian cocoa bean exports. The objectives of this research are (1) to analyze the trend of the development of the export volume of cocoa beans from Indonesia to Malaysia and the factors influencing it from 1989 to 2023, and (2) to analyze the significant factors affecting the export volume of cocoa beans from Indonesia to Malaysia from 1989 to 2023 in both the long term and short term. This study utilizes secondary data obtained from the World Bank, Bank Indonesia, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the United Nations Commodity Trade (UN Comtrade). The data is analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Error Correction Model (ECM), with the export volume of Indonesian cocoa beans to Malaysia as the dependent variable and cocoa bean production, real international cocoa bean prices, the real exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar, and the export duty policy of 2010 as independent variables. The development of the export volume of Indonesian cocoa beans and the factors influencing it has shown a fluctuating but generally increasing trend. The results indicate that both in the long term and short term, the production of cocoa beans in Indonesia has a positive effect on the export volume of cocoa beans from Indonesia to Malaysia. Meanwhile, the export duty policy of 2010 has a negative effect on the export volume of cocoa beans from Indonesia to Malaysia in the long term. However, the real international cocoa bean prices and the real exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar do not have a significant effect on the export volume of cocoa beans from Indonesia to Malaysia. Keywords: Export, Cocoa Beans, Indonesia, Malaysia, Error Correction Model

Type:	Thesis (S1)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Ekspor, Biji Kakao, Indonesia, Malaysia, Error Correction Model
Subjects:	L Education > L Education (General)
Divisions:	Fakultas Pertanian > Agribisnis
Depositing User:	Mukaromah
Date Deposited:	16 Jul 2025 07:09
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2025 02:24
URI:	https://repository.unja.ac.id/id/eprint/84597

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