Analisis Ekspor Batu Bara Provinsi Jambi ke China dan India Tahun 2011-2022

Putri, Mayzca Tanezia (2024) Analisis Ekspor Batu Bara Provinsi Jambi ke China dan India Tahun 2011-2022. S1 thesis, Universitas Jambi.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk, (1) menganalisis perkembangan nilai ekspor Batu Bara Provinsi Jambi, harga Batu Bara acuan, nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan ekonomi China dan India, dan (2) menganalisis pengaruh harga Batu Bara acuan, nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan ekonomi China dan India terhadap nilai ekspor Batu Bara Provinsi Jambi. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dari triwulan pertama tahun 2011 hingga triwulan ke empat tahun 2022 yang bersumber dari BPS Provinsi Jambi, Kementrian ESDM RI, Kemendag RI dan OECD. Dan menggunakan alat analisis Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil analisis perkembangan nilai ekspor Batu Bara provinsi Jambi ke China dan India selama tahun 2011-2022 mengalami fluktuasi disetiap tahunnya. Rata-rata perkembangan nilai ekspor Batu Bara Provinsi Jambi sebesar 15,19% disetiap tahunnya,harga Batu Bara acuan mengalami perkembangan dengan rata-rata sebesar 1,01%, nilai tukar (kurs) sebesar 1,26%, dan pada pertumbuhan ekonomi China perkembangan rata-ratanya sebesar 1,63%, pertumbuhan ekonomi India mengalami perkembangan rata-rata sebesar 1,80%. Hasil penelitian menggunakan model ARDL menunjukkan bahwa analisis nilai ekspor Batu Bara Provinsi Jambi ke China dan India dalam jangka pendek dinyatakan dapat dianalisis karena nilai CointEq(-1) signifikan dan memiliki nilai koefisien negatif, sedangkan pada hasil jangka panjang ke China menunjukkan bahwa harga Batu Bara acuan dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan dan pada hasil jangka panjang ke India menunjukkan harga Batu Bara acuan, nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan ekonomi India berpengaruh signifikan. Kata Kunci: Nilai Ekspor Batu Bara, Harga Batu Bara Acuan, Nilai Tukar, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi China dan India ABSTRACT The objectives of this research are, (1) to analyze the development of Jambi Province's coal export value, reference coal prices, exchange rates and economic growth in China and India, and (2) to analyze the influence of reference coal prices, exchange rates and economic growth in China and India on coal export value. Jambi Province. This research uses secondary data from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2022 sourced from BPS Jambi Province, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade and the OECD. And using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis tool. The results of the analysis of developments in the value of coal exports from Jambi province to China and India during 2011-2022 experienced fluctuations every year. The average development of Jambi province's coal export value is 15.19% each year, the reference coal price has experienced an average development of 1.01%, the exchange rate has increased by 1.26%, and China's economic growth has averaged -an average of 1.63%, India's economic growth experienced an average development of 1.80%. And the results of research using the ARDL model show that the analysis of the coal export value of Jambi Province to China and India in the short term can be analyzed because the CointEq(-1) value is significant and has a negative coefficient value, while the long term results to China show that the reference coal price and the exchange rate has a significant influence and long- term results for India show that the reference coal price, exchange rate and India's economic growth have a significant influence Keywords: Coal Export Value, Coal Reference Prices, Exchange Rates, China and India Economic Growth

Type:	Thesis (S1)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Nilai Ekspor Batu Bara, Harga Batu Bara Acuan, Nilai Tukar, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi China dan India
Subjects:	L Education > L Education (General)
Depositing User:	Putri
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2024 03:52
Last Modified:	15 Jan 2024 03:52
URI:	https://repository.unja.ac.id/id/eprint/60373

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